Scenario-based multiple criteria analysis for infrastructure policy impacts and planning
The consideration of emergent scenarios of economy, environment, technology, etc. is mandated by the US Department of Transportation for long-range transportation planning of infrastructure that will involve federal funding. This paper develops a practical methodology of scenario-based planning within a multi-criteria decision aid to support the comparison of transportation policies across state, regional, and local agencies. The methodology is demonstrated in a case study. First, we review existing methods and practices of scenario-based planning. Second, we perform a limited survey of select Metropolitan Planning Organizations on their concerns for emergent scenarios. Third, we develop the methodology for scenario-based reweighting of an additive value function. Fourth, we demonstrate the methodology in four regions in the Commonwealth of Virginia. The paper builds in part on an existing approach to adjust the weights performance criteria based on scenarios. Our approach uses emergent scenarios to reweight multiple performance criteria with an efficient use of survey/expert information.
Year of publication: |
2011
|
---|---|
Authors: | Schroeder, Matthew J. ; Lambert, James H. |
Published in: |
Journal of Risk Research. - Taylor & Francis Journals, ISSN 1366-9877. - Vol. 14.2011, 2, p. 191-214
|
Publisher: |
Taylor & Francis Journals |
Saved in:
Online Resource
Saved in favorites
Similar items by person
-
Decision model with quantification of buyer-supplier trust in advanced technology enterprises
Collier, Zachary A., (2021)
-
Climate change scenarios : risk an impact analysis for Alaska coastal infrastructure
Karvetski, Cristopher W., (2011)
-
A methodology for risk management of compound failure modes
Johnson-Payton, Lori R., (2000)
- More ...