Sea Level Rise as a Factor of Forced Migrations - Current Problems and Future Challenges

More than two decades of debate over sea level rise associated with climate change has not so far yielded a consensus. Equally difficult is determining the potential consequences of this process, among which we can mention deterritorialization of the country, economic losses amounting to trillions of dollars, demographic phenomena such as increased mortality and internal displacement or transnational forced migrations, and even armed conflicts caused by food shortages and increasing competition for territory. Rising sea levels, like other global problems, may directly affect all categories of human security mentioned in the UNDP Human Development Report published in 1994. Among highly significant risks we can mention a potential decline in global food security, caused by rising ocean temperatures and the destruction of coral reefs. The impact of environmental change on the dynamics of human mobility is a widely analyzed problem within the field of forced migration and IDP studies. It offers a good illustration of the most fundamental cause of forced migration, namely a decline in individual and community security in the inhabited territory to a level below that needed to meet basic existential needs and provide essential benefits. My discussion is both an analysis of already observed climate-related migrations and a brief description of the future potential of this phenomenon. The article presents statistics on the current and projected scale of sea level rise and its impact on the most vulnerable regions of the world (Bangladesh, Nigeria, China, microstates in Oceania). Stressing the importance of objective demographic parameters (such as population increase and high population density in coastal regions), I draw attention to possible scenarios, which are important in the context of alarming predictions of IPCC