Seasonal Forecasts of Unregulated Inflows into the Murray River, Australia

Water users along the Murray River, Australia, have traditionally used climatology forecasts of river flows for intra-annual planning of water use and trading. In this paper, we develop and assess the performance of statistical models for forecasting three-month inflow totals for the Murray River. Predictors are selected to represent the influence of initial catchment conditions and future climate on streamflows. These predictors vary with season and location, but are dominated by antecedent streamflows and indices describing the El Nino–Southern Oscillation. For all seasons, the forecasts are skilful with respect to climatology forecasts, and the forecast probability distributions appear to be reliable. Forecast skill is highest for forecasts made between September and December. The forecasts appear to be robust with respect to event size and time, except for the austral autumn seasons for which none of the predictors can forecast the decline in seasonal rainfall over the most recent decade. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013