Secret Deliberations

Sequential advice to a decision maker by two experts, if kept secret from the public, outperforms transparent deliberations. Under secrecy, the prior bias together with the bias due to the lead expert's opinion may or may not generate a conformity bias effect. These effects determine if and when the second expert's recommendation alters the decision maker's choice for the better. The biases may reinforce or oppose each other, leading to either full signal revelation or a beneficial (partial) herding by the second expert. For on average high ability experts, the only way a second expert can be effective is through secret deliberations. The analysis shows complex strategic interactions in sequential deliberations, advancing earlier findings on career concerns and cheap talk advice