SElf-Awareness, Uncertainty, and Markets with Overconfidence

Standard decision theoretic models take as given that agents have perfect self-awareness; they have complete knowledge of thier own abilities. In the first part of the paper we combine philosophical and empirical arguments to attack the perfect awareness assumption. In the second part we ask whether uncertainty about oneself needs to be modeled differently than uncertainty about the world, and argue that with the exception of a disturbing circularity aspect, the answer is no.