Shadow Economy and Tax Evasion: A Panel VAR approach. The Case of E.U.27

The paper investigates the biunivoque relationship between shadow economy (s) and tax evasion (t), considering a panel data-series, from 1997 to 2005, in the case of European Union 27 (E.U.27) countries. The empirical results show that: (1) A positive 1% impulse in s determines a strong descendent reaction of t on short term (first 2-3 years), becoming “aggressive descendent” on the medium and long term, and (2) A positive 1% impulse in t determines a very low ascendant reaction of s’s level on medium and long term. The main finding reveals that the relationship between shadow economy and tax evasion has different amplitude and signs.