Shared Destinies? Small Banks and Small Business Consolidation*

We identify a new source of bank consolidation in the United States. For decades, both the financial and real sides of the economy have experienced considerable consolidation. We show that banking-sector consolidation is, in part, a consequence of real-sector consolidation; because small banks are a disproportionate source of small-business credit, they are disproportionately exposed to shocks to small-business growth. Using a Bartik instrument based on national small-business trends and county-level industry exposure, we show that changes to the real-side demand for small-business credit is partially responsible for the relative decline in small banks’ deposits, income, and loan growth