Short-term forecasting with business surveys: Evidence for German IHK data at federal state level
We investigate the performance of the IHK business climate indices as forecasting tools within a growth framework at the level of four federal states in Northern Germany. In doing this, we match quarterly index scores with estimates of quarterly production data, generated through a Chow-Lin procedure. Estimating the model reveals strong linkages of the index scores to short-term output growth at the regional level, even after controlling for prior information on the position in the business cycle as well as for nation-wide fluctuations. Examining the forecasting accuracy of our model by means of out-of-sample predictions confirms these results: the model clearly outperforms an autoregressive benchmark. This can to a large part be traced back to information conveyed by the IHK index.
Year of publication: |
2013
|
---|---|
Authors: | Wenzel, Lars ; Wolf, André |
Publisher: |
Hamburg : Hamburgisches WeltWirtschaftsInstitut (HWWI) |
Saved in:
freely available
Series: | HWWI Research Paper ; 140 |
---|---|
Type of publication: | Book / Working Paper |
Type of publication (narrower categories): | Working Paper |
Language: | English |
Other identifiers: | 767902068 [GVK] hdl:10419/83647 [Handle] RePEc:zbw:hwwirp:140 [RePEc] |
Source: |
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010322508
Saved in favorites
Similar items by person
-
Regional diversity in the costs of electricity outages: Results for German counties
Piaszeck, Simon, (2013)
-
Towards a new measure of a country's competitiveness: applying canonical correlation
Wenzel, Lars, (2013)
-
Welfare implications of power rationing: An application to Germany
Wenzel, Lars, (2014)
- More ...