Short-Term Impact of the War on Economic Activity in Ukraine

The full-scale invasion and the subsequent introduction of Martial Law in Ukraine imposed substantial limitations on data gathering and processing by state statistical agencies. The lack of timely data severely restricts policy making and makes it difficult to assess the scale and speed of changes in the Ukrainian economy. To understand the short-term impact of the war on economic activity in Ukraine, we aggregate high-frequency predictions of regional GDPs in regions controlled by Ukraine. Our predictions are based on variables and models shown by the literature to accurately track economic activity during and after catastrophic events such as natural disasters or armed conflict: intensity of light at night, online search behaviour and social media activity. They are relatively easy to collect at high frequency with sufficient regional detail to reflect local shocks. Our analysis suggests that economic activity decreased to around 55% of its pre-war levels at the beginning of the war but recovered to around 80% in April