Simple vs. Generalized Interest Rate and Purchasing Power Parity Models of Exchange Rates

We construct a model in which the real exchange rate is affected by the real interest rate and price differentials as well as real factors that cause shocks to the expected flexible-price equilibrium value of the real exchange rate. The model is then employed to test for the "generalized" uncovered interest rate parity and purchasing power parity relations using the data for eight advanced countries and the cointegration technique. Simple versions of the parity conditions are also tested for the purpose of comparisons. We find evidence of cointegration only for the generalized version of the parity relations. Also, out-of-sample forecasts generated from error-correction models indicate that they are more accurate relative to those obtained from a random walk model for half of the countries in the sample