Simulações da Trajetória da Dívida Bruta do Governo Geral (2017 a 2037)

The results presented in the text show that, by curbing the growth of primary expenditures, Constitutional Amendment 95 has the potential to stabilize and to reduce general government gross debt, thus guaranteeing the sustainability of the Brazilian public debt. The positive effects of a greater fiscal policy credibility can extrapolate the purely fiscal issue and spread to the real economy through improving economic agents' confidence. The new fiscal regime is clearly a gradualist strategy to deal with the current serious problem of the Brazilian public accounts. The 20-year term - with the possibility of change in the mid-term - also appears to be adequate. Depending on the economic performance over the next ten years, it may be possible to adopt a softer rule after 2027. However, the two-decade horizon gives more credibility to this type of strategy.