Social Spending in IMF-supported Programs

This paper analyzes the impact of IMF-supported programs on health and education spending in a large time-series cross-section sample of countries. Using an ARIMA model to model time dynamics and instrumental variables to correct for the well-known endogeneity of IMF-supported programs, the paper finds, contrary to the conventional wisdom, that health and education do not decline in the presence of an IMF-supported program. However, this does not necessarily mean that the poor are protected from the costs of economic adjustment.