Socioeconomic analysis of the determinants of TANF recipients in the USA and policy implications

The dramatic decline in the number of welfare recipients in the USA is examined. The unique features of this article include the use of time series data, the consideration of different welfare benefits and socioeconomic variables, and the application of the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model. Finds that less benefits including cash, food stamps, and Medicaid, lower percentage of births to unmarried mothers, lower dropout rates, lower unemployment rates, more budgets for administrative expense, and welfare reform are expected to reduce welfare caseloads. If the recent unemployment rate of 6.1 percent persists for one year, welfare caseloads would rise by 525,300 from the year 2000 level, holding other factors constant.