Socioeconomic structure, self-fulfilment, homicides and spatial dependence in Brazil

In this article we develop a theoretical model to explain the homicide rate in any given place and construct a Bayesian model with a spatial structure to test the hypotheses. We assume that in his quest for self-fulfilment the individual, when taking the decision to perpetrate violence, not only responds to expected economic costs and benefits, but also to an internal system of reward and punishment, synthesized by the emotions. Symbolic valuation, in particular, with respect to conventional rules and the subjective valuation of life itself, depends on socioeconomic and age-group bonds. Theoretical conclusions show that the probability of victimization by violence is higher in places with greater income inequality, larger proportion of youths in the population and socioeconomic vulnerability. The model tested covered 5.507 Brazilian municipalities from 1999 to 2001, and we calculated the risk of a resident in any given municipality being a victim of homicide. This variable was confronted with other structural variables in order to obtain homicide elasticities and the effect of spatial dependency in explaining the risk of local victimization. The results suggest that there is evidence to support the theoretical propositions.