Some possibilities for risk analysis in the decision support of crop production

This article has been made according to my dissertation in which I present some opportunity of risk analysis and risk managementin the decision support of crop production.Plant production is one of the most hazardous agricultural enterprises. Among risk sources seasonal fluctuation of average yields playsan important role in the assessment of enterprises. Therefore, I analyzed the production risk of the produced crops in Hungary compared tothe European Union’s, after that I took into consideration the production site’s circumstances as well.Decision-makers must possess such means, by which they can measure, oversee and manage the effects and consequences of risk. In cropproduction linear programming models can be used to determine the optimal crop structure, by which income-sensitivity can be taken intoaccount, but it does not reflect the behavior to risk. This deficiency can be avoided by using risk programming models. By the complementaryusage of linear programming and risk programming models the optimizing and adaptive planning can be executed.It often causes a problem for the producers to decide when and how much to sell to realize a maximum turnover. The decision is mostlyinfluenced by the selling prices, but also important factors are the financial status of the business, the amount of credit and its conditions, the stock -piling opportunities and costs, and the short-term investment opportunities as well. For the resolution of the problem I set up a dynamic, simultaneousfinancial model by which the system-conceptual analysis of the above mentioned factors and a sound decision-making can be executed.