Sources of Persistence in Regional Start-Up Rates - evidence from Sweden

The relationship between start-up rates and regional economic development has been studied rather extensively in recent years. Dynamics in start-up rates have however received considerably less attention. In this paper we analyze the persistence of start-up rates across Swedish regions over a decade and analyze the sources of persistence. We find overall persistence in start-up rates. Start-up rates of a decade earlier are able to explain over 40 % of the variation in current start-up rates across regions. The paper introduces and tests two mechanisms that can account for persistence in start-up rates across regions: (i) path-dependence in start-up activity, such that there is a response mechanism between previous and current start-up activity and (ii) spatially ‘sticky’ and durable determinants of start-ups. A dynamic panel analysis applying the system GMM estimator of lagged start-up rates on current start-up rates, confirms that persistence in start-up activity can be explained by both effects. Using transition probability analysis and quantile regression techniques, we also show that there is a regional dimension in persistence.