Sources of Predictability of European Stock Markets for High-technology Firms

The paper reports on studies of return predictability of stock indexes of blue-chip firms and high-technology firms in Germany, France and the UK during the second half of the 1990s. Return predictability was measured in terms of first-order autocorrelation coefficients, and evidence was found for the return predictability of stock indexes of high-technology firms, but not for the return predictability of stock indexes of blue-chip firms. These findings suggest that a candidate for explaining the economic sources of the return predictability of these stock indexes of high-technology firms is transaction costs in the form of the costs of gathering and processing information in new technological fields.