Spatial Analysis of Forest Fire Trends, Patterns and Risk Mapping of Doti District, Nepal

Forest fire has been a major driving factor of forest degradation and pollution with irreversible impact on ecosystem. Despite its high severity limited studies have been done on spatial-temporal analysis and risk mapping. The study is based on spatial-temporal analysis of Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) data during the period 2012-2021 with satellite imagery using remote sensing and GIS technology. Nine variables consisting land class, distance to road, proximity to settlement, temperature, wind speed, precipitation, slope, aspect and elevation was used to identify the patterns of forest fire and finally prepare a fire risk map using multiparametric hierarchical weighted index model checked for multicollinearity (VIF<2) and validated through VIIRS data and Kernel Density Estimation (KDE) method. Increasing trend of forest fire was found in the area during the period 2012-2021, with March to May as high risk prone months. Broad leaved forest with less than 1000m proximity to road and settlement having temperature above 29˚C, below 65mm/month precipitation, wind speed of 1-3m/s, south sided having slope above 15˚ and elevation below 1500m were found to be in high risk. Out of the total forested area 1447.58 km2, 42.9%, 46.03% and 11.07% were found under high, moderate and low risk zone respectively. It showed Badikedar followed by Bogtan and Jorayal are at the highest risk of fire. The study will be helpful to line agencies, related stakeholders and policy makers to design fire management policy and allocate resources