Spatially resolved generation profiles for onshore and offshore wind turbines : a case study of four Dutch energy transition scenarios

In line with the Dutch Climate Agreement, multiple energy transition scenarios have been constructed for 2030 and 2050. To various extents, they project a shift towards decentralized and intermittent renewable electricity generation (wind and solar) and widespread deployment of electric vehicles and heat pumps. These developments impose challenges regarding electricity supply-demand mismatch and grid congestion. In order to gain an understanding of when and where such problems are likely to occur, temporally and spatially resolved interpretations of the energy transition scenarios are required. This paper focuses on Dutch wind energy supply and shows construction of geodatabases of scenario-specific, hourly onshore and offshore wind electricity generation profiles on an individual turbine level. For the geographical distribution of turbine capacity, datasets on historically operational turbines, planned wind parks and suggested future turbine distributions are utilized. Turbine electricity generation profiles are constructed using a high resolution 3D meteorological dataset and power curves of commercially available turbine models. They are corrected for air pressure deviations and a multitude of loss factors, including wake effects. Compared to the present-day situation, yearly country-level electricity generation is projected to be a factor 16.6, 24.6 or 12.8 higher in 2050 when following the Regional, National or International Steering scenarios, respectively. In comparison to both the present-day and 2030 situation, onshore electricity generation is projected to be more evenly spread over different parts of the country in 2050. All offshore wind exploration areas considered in this research are projected to be completely utilized by 2050.