Stakeholder-Based Scenarios for Post-2012 Climate Policy : A Participatory Approach

We performed a study to define the key elements of feasible global climate policy scenarios for the post-2012 UNFCCC regime by contacting - through a series of questionnaires -149 stakeholders involved in climate-change discussions. We applied a Multiple Correspondence Analysis to the results. We then classified the stakeholders' views into three main groups which we associate with scenarios for post-2012 climate policy. Further, we identified three points with wide consensus among the stakeholders: (i) 2013 is the most likely starting point for the next climate agreement, (ii) flexibility mechanisms will most probably be pursued, and (iii) technology and financial transfers to developing countries are likely to be used as incentives for these countries to undertake a more meaningful climate policy. We found that the type of target for the United States largely determined the type of scenario the stakeholders' envisaged for the post-2012 climate regime. Finally, we can associate stakeholders with a certain scenario taking into consideration their experience in climate change negotiations