STATISTICAL METHODS USED IN THE ANALYSIS AND FORECAST OF THE TOURISM ACTIVITY AFFECTED BY SEASONALITY

A lot of economic activities (tourism, commerce, transport, agriculture, constructions etc.) witness a different evolution of the performance indicators throughout the year, as there are seasonal variations (oscillations) on shorter intervals of time (trimesters, months, weeks, even days). These periodic variations, on time lapses shorter than a year, get repeated with relative accuracy from one period to another. The objective of this paper is to analyze the possibilities of quantification of the phenomenon of tourism seasonality, through the utilization of two methods: the seasonal coefficients and the decomposition of the chronological series to its main components.