Stock Markets, Banks, and Growth : Correlation or Causality

Analysis of a panel data set for 1976-1998 shows that on balance stock markets and banks positively influence economic growth - findings that do not result from biases induced by simultaneity, omitted variables, or unobserved country-specific effects.Beck and Levine investigate the impact of stock markets and banks on economic growth using a panel data set for 1976-1998 and applying recent generalized method of moments (GMM) techniques developed for dynamic panels. The authors illustrate econometrically the differences that emerge from different panel procedures. On balance, stock markets and banks positively influence economic growth - and these findings are not a result of biases induced by simultaneity, omitted variables, or unobserved country-specific effects.This paper - a product of Finance, Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to understand the links between the financial system and economic growth. The authors may be contacted at tbeck@worldbank.org or rlevine@csom.umn.edu