Structural and Cyclical Unemployment: What Can We Derive from the Matching Function?

We explain movements in the UV space, i.e. the relationship between stocks of unemployment and vacancies known as the Beveridge curve, in the Czech Republic during 1995-2004. While the Beveridge curve is described by labour market stocks, we explain shifts in the Beveridge curve using gross labour market flows by estimating the matching function. We interpret parameter changes in the matching function during the business cycle, distinguishing cyclical and structural changes in the unemployment rate. We find that labour market flows are very good coincidence predictors of turning points in the business cycle. We show that the Czech economy already suffers from the labour market hysteresis common in many other developed market economies in the EU.