STRUKTUR UND POTENTIALE DES AGRARAUSSENHANDELS MITTEL- UND OSTEUROPAS

This paper analyzes agricultural trade developments in the Central and Eastern European countries (CEEC) since the beginning of the transformation process, and estimates CEEC agricultural trade potentials. The competitiveness of the agricultural sector as a whole is quantified using revealed comparative advantage indices. These indicate a comparative advantage for the CEEC in the agricultural sector. This strength is likely to accelerate CEEC agricultural trade growth which started in 1993. Such a development could yield in high political pressure since some of the countries of the first EU accession round like Hungary or the Czech Republic show a high complementarity in their agricultural trade with EU. Some basic factors such as income, population and agricultural land can explain agricultural trade potentials. This could be shown using a gravity model, which reveals the significance and direction of the variables mentioned and others such as distance and membership of regional blocs. The gravity model is then used to roughly estimate the long-term trade potentials of trade between the CEEC and the EU. Export potentials are relatively high, whereas agricultural imports are likely to increase only in an EU accession scenario.