Substantial Changes and Their Impact on Mobility: A Typology and an Overview of the Literature

During the past 40 years, mobility patterns have enduringly changed several times as a result of the occurrence of a number “substantial changes”. Examples of such substantial changes are the rapid emergence of affordable air travel, the oil crises, and profound ICT developments. To most researchers and policy-makers in transportation, it seems more than likely that the next 40 years will also witness a number of substantial changes, some of which might even have larger impacts on mobility than the ones described above. However, literature on substantial changes and their impact on mobility are difficult to access as it is spread across different research fields and suffers from ambiguous use of terminology. As a result, overview of the literature on substantial changes and their findings is missing and discussions on the impacts on future mobility of potential substantial changes are hampered. To overcome these problems, this paper (1) proposes a typology of substantial changes and (2) ties together and reviews the scholarly literature that has focused on identifying the impacts of past substantial changes on mobility patterns. In this paper, we show how the proposed typology on substantial changes can be applied to contemplate on substantial changes and on their impacts.