Sustainable Development - A Path Dependent Analysis to the Rat Hole Coal Mining in Jaintia Hills District, India

Three analytical approaches to plan models for sustainable development are identified in the literature: economic analysis, decision analysis and system analysis. Essence of those three are taken together in an integrated framework to devise a diagnostic methodology to the path of (un)sustainable economic development. Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) and Sustainable Livelihood (SL) frameworks, congruent with capital theoretic approach to sustainable development are entwined in the proposed framework. In the context of artisanal rat-hole coal mining of Jaintia Hills District, north east India having its negative impact on bio-geo-chemical environment, shifting agro based livelihood to mine based one, the methodology has been applied and tested by fitting the statistical path coefficient model with time series data. In the chain of causality this structural equation modeling assesses how directly and indirectly in an interactive way each of the components – the coal export demand in Bangladesh, coal demand in cement industry, rapid coal extraction by artisanal method, mining induced increase in surface runoff, increase in fallow land and acid mine drainage over time is impacting the rice and fish production – the key components of agro based livelihood. The impact intensities of these different components are comparable and utilized in characterizing the path of (un)sustainable development. In terms of size effects they are rankable to set the order of priorities in social and environmental management planning.