Synchronised Business Cycles in East Asia and Fluctuations in the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate

Because many authors have proposed stimulating the ailing Japanese economy by monetary expansion and yen depreciation, we explore the repercussions of depreciating the yen against the dollar on the other East Asian economies - which largely peg to the dollar. Since 1980, economic integration among Japan's neighbours - China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand - has intensified and (except for China and Singapore) their business cycles have been highly synchronised. These cycles have been closely linked to fluctuations in the yen/dollar exchange rate - through changes in the export competitiveness, inflows of foreign direct investment and intra-Asian income effects. We show that a major yen devaluation would have a negative impact on incomes in other East Asian economies and that it is not a sensible policy option for Japan