Tax Base Elasticities: A Multi-State Analysis of Long-Run and Short-Run Dynamics

We examine the relative dynamic responses of state personal tax revenues and sales tax bases to changes in state personal income. Our econometric analysis, which includes separate analyses of long-run and short-run dynamics for each state, permits the estimation of asymmetric short-run responses depending upon the relationship between current and expected tax base growth. Results indicate that the average long-run elasticity for income taxes is more than double that for sales taxes. Most states have asymmetric short-run income elasticities, which are again greater for income taxes than for sales taxes. However, a joint analysis of long- and short-run dynamics reveals that neither tax is universally more volatile. After calculating state-specific income elasticities for both taxes, we employ cross-section regression techniques to explain the variation in elasticities across states. Several policy factors are found to be important, including elements of tax bases and rate structures.