Technology policy in the 21st century: How will we adapt to complexity?

Technology is becoming ever more complex and this has important implications for national technology policies. A major US policy challenge is how to formulate and implement policies effectively when innovation cannot be understood. Using a review of the complexity-science and evolutionary-economics literature, and six case studies of evolving complex technologies, this paper concludes that there are five common patterns which policy must recognize: seamlessness, diversity continuous change, lack of understanding, and the predictability of incremental innovation steps. The self-conscious development of a US national innovation system as a policy priority is important, because technology policies must cover all elements of the innovation process holistically. Copyright , Beech Tree Publishing.