Testing the Unbiased Forward Exchange Rate Hypothesis Using a Markov Switching Model and Instrumental Variables
This paper develops a model for the forward and spot exchange rate which allows for the presence of a Markov switching risk premium in the forward market and considers the issue of testing for the unbiased forward exchange rate (UFER) hypothesis. Using US/UK data, it is shown that the UFER hypothesis cannot be rejected provided that instrumental variables are used to account for within-regime correlation between explanatory variables and disturbances in the Markov switching model on which the test is based.
Year of publication: |
2003-02
|
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Authors: | spagnolod, fabio ; Psaradakis, Zacharias ; Sola, Martin |
Institutions: | Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University |
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