Théories économiques et politique d'immigration : le cas de la réforme « Obama » du système d'immigration américain

This article deals with the topic of determinants of immigration policy in the United States. Our view is that the adoption of a comprehensive immigration reform under the Obama administration is very unlikely. We show first that, according to economic theory, immigration policymaking and individual preferences should be interrelated. This is an argument in favor of a closure of the immigration system, as we observe a significant increase of individual preferences favoring immigration restrictions since 2008. Still, this indicator is very poorly related empirically with past evolutions of the immigration policy. This result puts into light other determinants (political and institutional) which are likely to account for its persistent openness during last decades. It also suggests that the Republican victory at the midterm?s elections will not bring major changes to current immigration policy.<np pagenum="202"/>