Thailand; Selected Issues
To estimate the New Keynesian model, we use four key macroeconomic series for Thailand. The priors are chosen to reflect general considerations of the appropriate model dynamics and our judgment about the Thai economy. The model is solved initially so that the baseline forecast replicates staff baseline projections over the medium term. We analyze two main risk scenarios, and estimate that the output in Thailand may decline by up to 0.9 percent relative to the baseline. However, the adverse impact on Thai output is likely to be smaller than suggested above.
Year of publication: |
2008-06-19
|
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Institutions: | International Monetary Fund (IMF) ; International Monetary Fund |
Subject: | Selected issues | Economic growth | Exchange rates | External shocks | Gross domestic product | inflation | monetary policy | confidence intervals | equation | correlation | rational expectations | equations | real interest rate | general equilibrium model | nominal interest rate | bayesian analysis | inflation rate | parameter estimation | probabilities | markov chain | inflation targeting | probability | foreign exchange | econometrics | adaptive expectations | parameter value | curve equation | standard error | computation | lower inflation | random walk | real interest rates | covariance | monetary economics | estimation technique | rate of inflation | inflationary expectations |
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