The assignment-examination relationship and the probabilistic performance of intermediate macroeconomics students : 2000 - 2011

The paper reports the results of a statistical analysis of the assignment and examination marks and final grades obtained by students in intermediate macroeconomics at Massey University over the 2000-2011 period. Basic probability concepts and multiple regressions are employed. Unconditional and conditional probabilities of obtaining the various letter grades are estimated. The information is expected to help students plan their studies more effectively and increase their motivation to learn. Multiple regressions of examination marks run on assignment marks, selected control variables and year dummies reveal interesting associations but the models have characteristically low explanatory power. The evidence supports some popular notions about relative student performances and challenges others. A more objective basis is suggested for calculating proxy final examination marks for students who either miss or write the final examination under extenuating circumstances and later apply for aegrotat and grade change.