The CAP in 1995--A Qualitative Approach to Policy Forecasting.

The paper describes how long-term forecasts of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) can be generated using qualitative information. Following an explanation of the methodology adopted, the discussion focuses on the analysis of a Delphi survey on the future of the CAP, carried out between January and August, 1986. The results illustrate a number of contrasting characteristics typical of Delphi surveys, in particular, the problems associated with communicating complex and often complicated concepts and the trade-off which exists between accuracy and efficiency in conducting a survey of this kind. The forecasts cover a number of issues and include probability estimates of specific events (renationalization of the CAP, enlargement of the EC, introduction of majority voting, increase in "own resources," maintenance of dairy quotas), the identification of key issues and future policy developments, and numerical forecasts of budgetary expenditure, farming incomes and the level of price support in 1995. Copyright 1989 by Oxford University Press.