The Chinese GDP Growth Rate Puzzle : How Fast Has the Chinese Economy Grown?

The Chinese statistical authorities have recently revised the Chinese GDP level and real growth rate for the period 1993-2004 following China's first national economic census for 2004. However, their methodology used in the revision is opaque. Using a trend-deviation interpolation approach, this study has managed to replicate the basic procedures of the revision and reproduced the official estimates. Through this exercise, it has found that the estimates that could be obtained by the straightforward interpolation procedures were significantly and arbitrarily modified. Based on some political economy argument, we attempt to explain why the revision had to leave the growth rate of 1998 intact and why it had to bypass the price issue and directly work on the real growth rate revision. Based on previous studies and other observations, we also question the census results on non-service industries