The Commuting Costs of High Intensity Rains : Evidence From Rio de Janeiro Buses and Subway

City life is frequently affected by recurrent natural events of varying intensity. In this paper I examine the impacts of recurrent high intensity rains (HIRs) on the public transportation system of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. I use a novel dataset composed of the city buses GPS information, bus system supply and demand data and subway system hourly demand. I find that: 1) HIRs reduce buses average speed by 1.3% to 8.1%; and 2) there is a substitution effect between buses and subways when the city undergoes a highly disruptive HIR. I estimate a yearly HIRs wage opportunity cost between R$41.7 and R$65.2 million reais, which should only increase according to the most recent climate change forecasts