The Credibility of the United Kingdom's Commitment to the ERM : Intentions versus Actions

The paper presents estimates of a model of the credibility of the U.K. commitment to its central parity against the deutsch mark during the period of ERM membership (1990-92). The measure of credibility used is the long term, interest differential with Germany. Credibility is decomposed into two aspects ; an assessment of whether the government was truly committed to the ERM, and the probability that even a committed government would be able to continue to bear the unemployment costs. Doubts about the first aspect which could lead to a self-fulfilling crises - are shown to have declined steadily during the period of ERM membership, while the second aspect is estimated to have become increasingly important, due to rising unemployment.