The Cyclic Behavior of the National Office Market
A review of the post WWII data on national office building construction and vacancy, reveals a recurrent ten-twelve year cycle. Specifying and estimating a structural econometric model for these series leads to several conclusions about this commercial real estate sector. First, the office market appears to "clear" quite slowly, and long-run expectations play an important role in market behavior. Second, supply is definitely more responsive to market conditions than demand. Finally, a six-year forecast suggests that the current over-supply in the market will not go away as fast as in the past. Copyright American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association.
Year of publication: |
1987
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Authors: | Wheaton, William C. |
Published in: |
Real Estate Economics. - American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association - AREUEA. - Vol. 15.1987, 4, p. 281-299
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Publisher: |
American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association - AREUEA |
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