The Czech National Bank's Inflation Report for Q3 1999

The decline in year-on-year inflation was halted in Q3 1999. After a considerable drop in the previous period, inflation gradually stabilised at its lowest level since 1991, the beginning of the country?s economic transformation. Net inflation continued to be determined largely by food prices. The economy livened up somewhat in Q2 1999, fostered in particular by an improvement in net exports and by growth in household consumption. The current macroeconomic framework is marked by the anti-inflationary effect of the demand side and by the revival of some cost-push inflationary factors. The medium-term inflation trend will be affected by growth in import prices linked with the upsurge of commodity prices on global markets. Looking forward, inflation will rise somewhat over the Q3 level. The mid-value of the net inflation forecast is moderately below the lower limit of the inflation target for the end of 2000.