The Decline of Employment Among Older People inBritain

Older men have experienced the largest falls in employment over thelast twenty years. Two-fifths of men aged between 55 and 65 are withoutwork, compared to one-fifth in 1979, and the difference is equivalent to600,000 fewer jobs for this age group alone. Older women have notshared in the general rise in female employment.This paper analyses the Labour Force Survey and the first sixwaves of the British Household Panel Survey to examine why olderpeople’s employment has fallen, which groups have been most affected,and whether these trends are likely to continue.Changes in employment between 1979 and 1997 have beenreflected in opposite changes, not in unemployment, but in economicinactivity. Male employment has fallen furthest among people with thelowest, or no, educational qualifications.Panel data suggest that, among people aged over 45, two groupsare most likely to leave the labour market. They are (a) people in thebottom quartile of the hourly wage distribution and (b) people withwages in the top half but who are also members of an occupationalpension scheme. Return rates back into work are low. Transitionsbetween unemployment, long-term sickness and retirement aresignificant, and almost always weaken attachment to the labour market.[...]