The Demographic Transition from Single-Family to Multifamily Housing

This article examines forces underlying the housing recovery to determine when sustained construction growth will resume. The analysis suggests that very strong multifamily construction growth is likely to resume by early 2014 and that moderately strong single-family construction growth is likely to resume by early 2015. The longer term outlook is especially positive for multifamily construction, reflecting the aging of the baby boomers and an associated shift in demand from single-family to multifamily housing. By the end of the decade, multifamily construction is likely to peak at a level nearly two-thirds higher than its highest annual level during the 1990s and 2000s. Notwithstanding renewed growth, the level of single-family construction is likely to remain moderate. By the end of the decade, it is likely to peak at a level comparable to what prevailed just prior to the housing boom. Thereafter, single family construction is projected to contract at a moderate rate