The determinants of bank profitability and risk : a random forest approach

This study is the first to analyse the relative importance of a number of the most cited determinants of bank risk and profitability using random forest’s relative value importance measure. The results show that a bank’s profitability is largely determined by bank-specific factors, while a bank’s risk is predominantly impacted by country-level factors. The results also suggest that proxies for market power and size play significant roles in impacting both the bank’s profitability and its risk profile. The analysis also confirms the presence of a major role for a country’s financial development status and regulatory quality in impacting the bank’s riskiness. Lastly, the analysis confirms the presence of a small number of dominant determinants of a bank’s profitability in contrast to the absence of clear dominant determinants of a bank’s riskiness.