The Diffusion of Mobile Telecommunications Services in the European Union

We study the determinants of the diffusion of mobile telecommunications services in the European Union in a logistic model of technology diffusion. We find that the transition from the analogue to the digital technology during the early nineties, and the corresponding increase in spectrum capacity, has had a major impact on the diffusion of mobile telecommunications. The impact of introducing competition was also significant, during both the analogue and the digital period, though the effect was proportionately smaller. Finally, we find that countries which granted first licenses at later points in time, show a significant catching-up effect, though international convergence may be expected only by the year 2006. The empirical results remain robust when other possible determinants of diffusion are included, such as the size of the fixed network and GDP per capita