The distribution of AIDS over the population in Africa. Hypothesis building from individual answers to a Demographic and Health Survey with an application to Côte d'Ivoire

Lack of knowledge about risk differentials regarding AIDS seriously hampers the study of the economic impact of AIDS in developing countries, at both the macro- and micro-economic levels. In this paper, we derive, we think, reasonable assumptions on mortality risk differentials by age, education, and other micro-economic characteristics by exploiting variables from the Ivoirian DHS. Finally these differentials are calibrated on demographic projections of the United Nations to obtain disaggregated mortality tables. One main result of our model is that educated people have a higher risk of dying through AIDS, because they are more likely to have several sexual partners. This effect is however partly offset by a higher probability of condom use relative to less educated people.