The Dynamics of International Migration : A Three Step Empirical Model of Bangladeshi Migrants in Italy

This paper empirically examines the relations between wealth, migration costs and networks in determining migration decisions. The aims of this research is to improve the methodological approach in the study of the determinants of migration, to provide policy-makers with better forecasting instruments to avoid the unpredictable and undesirable consequences of immigration reforms. A three step procedure based on Instrumental Variable and Inverse Mills Ratio (IMR) is applied to identify the effect of selection (Probit and IV-Probit) and to examine the number of migrants a household sends abroad (IMR and IV Regression). Findings delve out that Bangladeshi migrants belong to the middle of the income distribution in Bangladesh. Migration and wealth are non-linearly related. Household and community networks increase the migration propensity. Specifically, when large enough, networks further increase the migration propensity of the households belonging to the middle-left of the income distribution. Community and household-level networks are partially substitutes and partially complements. This study suggests that the effect of Italian legislation on Bangladeshi migration should be investigated in more detail, focusing not on the aggregate level of analysis, but on checking whether changes in legislation have generated changes in the composition of migration flows