The Dynamics of Temporary Policies in a Small Open Economy.

The paper corrects a subtle, but crucial, conceptual flaw in a solution procedure initially proposed in 1990 by Sen and Turnovsky to analyze anticipated regime changes in small open economies based on the intertemporal optimization of rational forward-looking agents. The problem is its failure to consider the intertemporal solvency of the economy consistently. The paper focuses on temporary shocks, although the procedure also applies to announced future permanent policy changes. Since the issue is generic and relevant to a large class of policy changes, it is important for the intertemporal solvency aspect to be incorporated consistently. The authors show that the seriousness of the error in the previous solution procedure depends upon the specific shock, and two contrasting examples are discussed. Copyright 2002 by Blackwell Publishing Ltd.