The Effect of Cloud Cover on Consumer Retail Spending : Evidence from Big Data

This paper examines several causal effects of sunshine exposure on customers’ retail purchasing behavior. We attribute these effects to sunshine-induced mood. Our evidence draws from high-frequency individual-level data tracking sunshine exposure as measured by cloud cover observed at each consumer’s residential location, as well as their daily grocery purchases. After controlling for a large set of weather controls, as well as individual and time fixed effects, we show that sunshine exposure has a significant and robust effect on the amount and type of products that individuals consume. Sunshine exposure increases consumers’ propensity to make purchases and increases the value of their daily purchases. Additional tests reveal that sunshine exposure is associated with purchasing a higher volume of lower-value products spread across a broader range of product classes and a greater portion of store brands, as opposed to national brands. In addition, sunshine exposure increases the propensity to make a purchase in a physical store and to purchase non-grocery items. In the final set of analyses, we find that the documented sunshine exposure effect is exacerbated among low-income and older individuals. Our paper is the first large-scale study conducted at the individual level on the causal effects of sunshine exposure on consumer spending choices