The effect of immigration shocks on native fertility outcomes: Evidence from a natural experiment

This paper investigates whether immigration shocks have a causal effect on native fertility patterns. It uses a natural experiment, exploiting the large, unexpected and localised immigration of Cuban nationals to the Miami area in the USA in 1980 to examine the fertility consequences for non-Cuban Miami women. Using a synthetic control estimator and an extended individual difference-in-differences analysis, the results from this study indicate that the immigration shock had an overall negative, though short-lived, impact on the fertility of Miami women. In addition, fertility effects are found to vary by homeownership: While the immigration shock had a considerable negative impact on the fertility of women living in rented homes, it had no effect on those living in owned homes. This differential impact was likely due to the rise in local housing rents accompanying immigration, making childbearing less affordable for those living in rented homes.