The effect of programme participation on the transition rate from unemployment to employment

We use Norwegian register data from 1989 to 2002 to estimate the causal effects of programme participation on the transition rate from unemployment to employment,by means of a dependent risks hazard rate model. The separate roles of causality and unobserved heterogeneity are non-parametrically identified on the basis of variation in ‘lagged’ explanatory variables. Active labour market programmes tend to reduce the transition rate to ordinary work during the participation period, and increase it afterwards. The average net effect on total unemployment duration for the treated is around zero. There are favourable net effects for adults with poor employment prospects.