The Effectiveness of Conceptual Airport Terminal Designs

<title>A<sc>bstract</sc> </title> Aviation passenger traffic is forecast to grow significantly over the next decade and beyond. To accommodate this growth will require investment in airport infrastructure, including terminals. These buildings represent large, lumpy investments, so it is important to provide the capacity to accommodate the forecast traffic. However, this depends on at least two factors: the accuracy of the forecast of future demand, and the process of translating these forecasts into designs. Error in either factor can be potentially catastrophic financially. Translating forecasts into designs depends on ‘rules of thumb’ formulae that convert design hour flows into area requirements for each terminal facility. This paper examines the process of translating demand forecasts into conceptual terminal designs. The basic methods used are outlined, and how they affect the conceptual terminal design process are revealed. A model for conceptual terminal design is derived, presented and validated based on a sample of UK airports. It is shown that even if demand forecasts can be taken to be completely accurate, there can still be errors in terminal design and size resulting from the use of these ‘rules of thumb’.